California Recall: A Summary for my Out-of-State Friends

The recall effort in California is getting some serious attention lately and a lot of my friends from my home state have been asking me about it. I realized that I didn’t really fully understand it myself, so I set out to find more information. Here is a summary of what I learned about recalls in general and this specific recall. I hope it will help you wrap your head around what’s going on.

General Info About Recalls

Twenty states allow for gubernatorial recall, each with its own rules. Eight of states require a “valid reason” for the recall, such as misconduct or lack of fitness, while the others let you recall for any reason. The process of the recall is also different in each state. In eight states, voters will first be asked if they want to recall and then, if yes, they will hold a second election to determine who will take their place (Separate Election). Six states hold a special election in which the sitting governor is put on the same ballot as those running against them (Simultaneous Election). In five states the voters will only vote on whether they want to recall the governor, and if they do then the governor is removed and the next person in succession takes their place (Retention Recall Election). And in one state (Virginia), the governor would be given a trial to determine if they are recalled (Recall Trial). California holds a Simultaneous Election — but more on this later.

All of the states that allow gubernatorial recalls require petitions to get it on the ballot (or to trial). The requirement for the number of signatures needed on the petition is a percentage of either the state’s registered voters or number of people who voted in the last election (with some additional requirements of the signers in some states). The most common (in nine states) requirement is 25% of the number of votes cast in the last gubernatorial election. Just 3 states require less than 15% of voters to petition for a recall — Montana (10%, and requires a valid reason for recall), Virginia (10%, and recalls through a trial, not vote), and California (12%, no reason for recall required). Additionally, people organizing the recall need to get signatures in a certain amount of time. Eleven states require the signatures be obtained in 3 months or less. California gives 160 days (~5 months) to gather signatures, and petitioners can ask for an extension (the current one got a 120 day extension).

Back to the Simultaneous Recall Election, where the recall is on the same ballot as voting for the new governor. There are two ways to do this. One is to run a special election with a single list of candidates, including the sitting governor, and whoever gets the most votes wins. Four of the six states that do simultaneous elections vote in this way. The last two states, Colorado and California, run their recall elections by having two separate questions on the ballot: 1. Do you want to recall? Yes/No; and 2. Who do you want to be the new governor? (The current governor cannot be on this list). So, if more than 50% of the people say yes to question 1, then the person with the majority of the votes in question 2 would become governor, even if they got very few of the overall votes.

Only two governors have ever been successfully recalled: in 1921, Governor Lynn Frazier of North Dakota, and of course in 2003, Governor Gray Davis of California. In 2003, 55% of Californians voted to recall Davis and Governator Schwarzenegger got 48% of the popular vote to take his place. It’s hard to find how much the 2003 recall cost taxpayers — but it’s not cheap. In 2003, just holding the special statewide election alone was estimated to cost $25 million, and that doesn’t include other costs along the way or after. Some have estimated the current recall will cost $66 million.

Newsom Recall

Prominent Democrats and Independents from all over the country are coming out in support of Newsom, calling the recall an extreme right wing power grab, but every social media post with that phrasing has comments from people claiming to be a Democrat in support of the recall. The reason why this is a Republican power grab is not because no one on the left dislikes Newsom, obviously plenty do. It’s a power grab because a recall is the only way for Republicans to push a candidate into office that would otherwise be unpopular in California. And, as seen above, the recall process in California is easier than it is in other states and allows for someone who does not have the majority of the vote to be elected.

The thing that the petitioners have on their side during this recall is our collective exhaustion with the pandemic. This is one of 6 attempts to recall Newsom since 2019, but this is the only time it’s gotten much traction. If you talk to someone who is pro-recall, one reason they will all almost certainly mention is “The French Laundry” — when Newsom went to an indoor dinner party, maskless, at an expensive Michelin Star restaurant, during his stay-at-home orders. This helped the recall effort get a nice influx of signatures. There are some other reasons people list for wanting to recall him, but that honestly seems like the only unifying reason. It’s an emotional response to his clearly hypocritical act while we are all struggling through this crisis.

One thing that Newsom has on his side is that there is no major challenger that people seem to like better. Two of the most likely people to run are John Cox, who lost to Newsom in 2018 by the biggest landslide since 1950, and former San Diego Mayor, Kevin Faulconer. Faulconer’s political career is as follows. In 2002, he ran for San Diego City Council in District 2 and lost. In 2005, the person who won resigned after being convicted of corruption, and they had a special election to replace him. Faulconer won the special election with 51.5% of the vote in a runoff (no one got 50%+ of the vote the first time, so top two go to runoff). He was then re-elected twice as the incumbent. Then, in 2013, the then mayor of San Diego resigned due to sexual assault allegations. Faulconer ran to fill his seat, again winning in a runoff election with 53% of the vote. He won in 2016 as the incumbent, but could not run again in 2020 due to term limits. Basically, Faulconer has a history of winning special elections when Democrats leave before their term is done. Obviously, neither of these guys have anywhere near the star-power as Arnold Schwarzenegger, but, that said, they also don’t need to win 50% of the vote — they just need to convince 50% of the voters that they don’t want Newsom anymore, and then beat the other nobodies running.

Where The Recall Currently Stands

The recall petitioners need to get about 1.5 million signatures by March 17th, which they claim to have surpassed. After that, the counties will need to verify the signatures, and have 30 days to do so. Then there’s time given in which people can withdraw their signatures if they wish. If after all that there are still enough valid signatures, there’s some administrative work needed (mostly figuring out how much the special election will cost). Then, the Lieutenant Governor sets a date for the special election in 60–80 days. If everything takes the max amount of time allowed, Californians will be voting on the recall in October. If they vote to recall, the person who wins the seat will finish Newsom’s term ending January 2nd, 2023. Either way, Californians will be voting for governor again on November 8, 2022.

With everything, it still seems pretty unlikely (but not impossible) for Newsom to be recalled. Thanks to their four month extension, the recall effort has managed to get over 2 million signatures. Of the signatures that have already been validated, about 85% seem to be good — so at that rate there would be plenty of valid signatures to go forward. But, there’s a lot of time between now and a potential October vote — time during which people are expected to be vaccinated, kids get back to school, businesses reopen, et cetera. The rage people feel right now from the pandemic will likely dissipate some by then. Plus, polls show that even now most Californians don’t want the recall and Newsom is still much better liked than Davis was in 2003. And aside from themselves, no one believes that the current alternatives to Newsom could get people out to vote in a special election like action hero Arnold Schwarzenegger could. It’s all just a big waste of time, money, and energy.

Note: If you’re someone who found this who doesn’t know me, please note I’m not a political analyst or a journalist. I’m just some random schmoe who spent a day reading about recalls on the internet. Please take what I’ve written with a grain of salt — it is opinion. I’m happy to correct any facts I got wrong, though.